Rebels To Decide The Outcome In Uttarakhand 

K. Ramachandra Murthy

Dehradun: The might of the rebels will decide the fate of the two national parties in the elections in Uttarakhand where the campaign came to an end on Monday evening. Both the Congress and the BJP are facing revolt from the party old-timers who were frustrated for various reasons. The polling will take place on Wednesday, 15 February 2017. The counting would take place on March 11 along with other Sates.

Uttarakhand has a history of fierce election battles with no party enjoying the luxury of absolute majority or stability in power. ND Tiwari is the only chief minister so far to complete a term, from 2002-2007. This time too it is going to be a close affair. In the last Assembly elections held in 2012, the Congress won 32 seat and the BJP bagged 31. The difference in percentage of votes is almost zero with each party polling 33.13 percent while the overall difference in the number of votes received was 27,000 in favour of the Congress.

In 2007 elections, the Congress was polled 29.9 percent while the BJP got 31.6 percent. In the first elections to the new State Assembly in 2002, the Congress was preferred by 26.81 percent of the voters while the BJP was opted by 25.81 percent. The margins have been narrow from the beginning.

There are 74 lakh voters in Uttarakhand . Some 39 lakhs are male. It is a State where the upper castes have complete domination. The forward Thakurs and Brahmins constitute a whopping 64 percent with Thakurs accounting for more than 35 percent. Muslims are about 14 percent and the Dalits are more than 16 percent of the State's population.

BJP candidate Kuldeep Kanvasi (32) died on Sunday forcing the election in Karnprayag constituency in Chemoli district to be countermanded. Polling will be held in 69 out of the total 70 Assembly constituencies. An important feature with the State is that there is a soldier from every fifth home. There are 90,000 men in today's army and the number of paramilitary personnel is 1,25,000. That is the reason why the BJP leaders make it a point to talk at length about One Rank One Pension (OROP) policy. Uttarakhand hand is extremely important for the BJP and, more importantly, Narendra Modi. Out of the five States that are going to polls, Goa and Manipur are too small. Punjab is as good as lost for the SAD and the BJP combine.

UP appears to be uncertain. The only State that could come to BJP's rescue is Uttarakhand on which the party invested a lot of its resources and reputation. The party is leaving no stone unturned in the epic battle between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Harish Rawat. While the AICC Vice President Rahul Gandhi has addressed three public meetings besides some roadshows, the Congress party's campaign is being carried out by Rawat himself. Win or loss could be Rawat's.

On behalf of the BJP, big guns have repeatedly boomed with PM Modi addressing five rallies in a small State like Uttarakhand Party president Amit Shah, Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, union ministers like Uma Bharati, Smriti Irani, Nithin Gadkari, JP Nadda, Dharmendra Pradhan, MPs Hema Malini, Yogi Adityanath and many others travelled to the State.

But the problem for the BJP is that the rebels have been working equally hard to get the official candidates defeated. Amit Shah plotted to topple the government headed by Harish Rawat and encouraged defections under the leadership of Vijay Bahuguna, son of Hemavati Nandan Bahuguna. As many as 12 Congress MLAs were lined up.

Amit Shah wanted to convince the State leaders of the party if the need to admit the rebels into the party. He invited Lt General Khanduri, Nishank, Ajay Bhat among others. But all the BJP leaders from Uttarakhand said an emphatic 'no' to the proposal. But Amit Shah, the strong leader, went ahead and admitted all the rebel MLAs. As a continuation, all the sitting rebel MLAs were given BJP tickets and four BJP sitting MLAs have been denied the party tickets to provide tickets to non-MLA defectors. So much so, there are strong vengeful rebels at least in 16 constituencies bothering the BJP candidates. Former chief ministers also have been working against official candidates in order to defeat the candidates belonging to the rival groups.

Congress party is no less worried about the rebels. There are active Congress rebels in not less than 12 constituencies. Compared to the BJP, the Congress is better placed as far as threat from rebels is concerned. In spite of the dissidents and the incumbency factor, Rawat is fighting valiantly against the might of the BJP.

The main issues in the campaign are corruption, OROP, Muzaffarnagar communal rites among others. Uttarakhand has seen eight chief ministers in 16 years of its existence. Is it going to have a new chief minister or the incumbent would continue? The answer depends on the efficacy, focus and prowess of the rebels.