According to the recent statistics made by researchers from the Indian Institute of Sciences (IISc)-Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru, the daily peak hospitalizations and ICU facility requirements during the Omicron variant driven Covid-19 third wave are expected to be within manageable limits in Telangana.
Unlike the Delta variant, which caused hospitalizations to range between 20% and 25% among active infections, the Omicron variant may not put extreme pressure on Telangana hospitalisations and ICU facilities.
According to IISc-ISI forecasts based on the transmissibility of the Omicron variant developed by researchers Siva Athreya and Rajesh Sundaresan, hospitalizations in Telangana will peak at roughly 10,500 beds per day even in the worst-case scenario.
Telangana has a total bed strength of 56,036 beds in government and private hospitals, including normal, ICU, and oxygen beds, with 40,697 beds in private hospitals and the remaining 15,339 beds in government hospitals. The availability of over 50,000 hospital beds in Telangana suggests that if the IISc-ISI estimates are correct, the hospital and ICU bed requirements will be under control, even though daily Covid infections are expected to climb. According to the IISc-ISI prediction models, the daily need for ICU beds might peak at a little around 1,000 hospital beds. “Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant, is taken as a parameter of 30 percent, 60 percent, and 100 percent,” said, researchers.
When 100% of the population in Telangana is susceptible (worst case scenario), peak hospitalisation will be around 10,500 per day; when 60% of the population is susceptible, hospital bed requirements will peak just above 6000; and when only 30% of the population is susceptible, daily hospital bed requirements will peak at 4000. During the Covid third wave, the peak ICU bed requirement in hospitals will be between 600 and 1000 ICU beds.