Peoples Pulse Called The Polls Right

Hyderabad based political research organisation, Peoples Pulse, has been gathering ground level insight in states across India for the past nine years. Peoples Pulse is the only Hyderabad based organisation that is conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies across India.

In this period Peoples Pulse has conducted mood surveys and pre-poll surveys from the sensitive Jammu & Kashmir, the North East, North and South India.

The reports don’t begin and end with who is winning and who is losing, but strive to go into the details and issues behind victory and loss.We are proud that we have reported the data with a high level of accuracy. We are proud to say that we conduct the surveys transparently giving full details into how the survey was conducted.

In the recent elections we surveyed Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana. We conducted mood reports, by our research associates who travelled the state for several weeks at a stretch, and also pre-poll surveys. Due to logistical reasons we did not survey Rajasthan.

In Madhya Pradesh we conducted a mood survey where we clearly reported that there is a mood for change. This was in June 2018, nearly six months before the Assembly election.Similarly, in the pre-poll we survey we predicted 116-120 seats for the Congress and a vote share of 41.6 percent with an error margin of + or – 3 percent. In the actual outcome the Congress won 114 seats with a vote share of 40.9.

We also reported the mood in the various regions of Madhya Pradesh, the ruralurban dispositions and farmers’ distress very accurately. When the common belief was the Congress would be hit due to a lack of electoral understanding with the BSP, we said that the BSP would get 0-2 seats. In the final tally the BSP got two seats.

Coming to Chhattisgarh we reported that the Congress would get 41 percent and in reality the party polled 43 percent. Similarly, we said that the JCC and BSP would get 11 percent and the final results had them with 10.9 percent. Again here the common belief was that Ajit Jogi’s JCC and BSP would harm

the Congress, but we reported that this combine would hit the BJP. Eventually the duo harmed the BJP hard. We also said in the Maoist affected areas, the Congress would do well and this was found totally accurate in the final analysis.

In Telangana we completed a mood survey in October 2018 and a pre-poll survey. In both reports we said that the TRS holds the edge in the elections and that despite the anti-incumbency against the MLAs, there was no widespread desire to defeat Mr K Chandrashekar Rao.

We also reported that Muslims and Backward Classes would form a major chunk of the TRS vote in this election. We said that the issues working in favour of the government were power, the government’s plans for drinking water and irrigation, apart from the raft to populist measures. Both the survey reports said that the BJP was nothing but hot air and that Left parties are irrelevant in these elections. Our finding that the TJS would be a non-starter was bang on target. Further, another key finding that the Muslims are not suspicious that Mr Chandrashekar Rao was soft on Mr Narendra Modi, was accurate.

In Mizoram we said there would be a hung Assembly with MNF and Congress getting around equal number of seats. But here in the final tally the MNF won handsomely and the Congress was routed. That Mizoram is a small state where less than 100 votes make a huge difference cannot be our defence. We are introspecting on what went wrong.

Peoples Pulse has already begun work for the Parliament elections and the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha in 2019. Our focus is on North East states. We are planning mood reports to track the disposition of the voters from second half of February 2019.