Jagan holds the key in Andhra

Along the east coast, three regional satraps - two of them ruling their states and another fighting for political space - could hold the key to the 2014 general election, if there is no clear mandate.

In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa is in control. In West Bengal, Mamata - despite all predictions - is increasing her political influence in the state. And Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh is being seen as a gainer in both the assembly and parliamentary elections, despite the Congress' attempts to restrict his influence after announcing the creation of Telangana.
These three states put together have close to a 100 Lok Sabha seats, and any formation looking to capture Delhi will need each seat it can get.
"Regional parties will play an important role. Without them no government would be possible," said CPI leader A. Raja.
But the thinking within the regional players is not just about numbers but about influence. The question is, to which side of the political divide are these three potential kingmakers inclined to go?
There are some straws in the political winds that offer some clues. In Tamil Nadu for instance, with 40 seats, chief minister J Jayalalithaa was always considered to be leaning towards the BJP. She is also known to have a personal relationship with the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The Congress for her was enemy no. 2, after the main opposition, the DMK.
Yet, of late, she has not objected to her party members and ministers attending functions where Union ministers were also present. Political pundits in the state also pointed out that she sent birthday wishes to the prime minister this year, but skipped Modi.
Though these are still early days, some are reading them as political signs.
Moving up the coast, in Andhra which brought an unexpected windfall for the UPA in 2009, Jaganmohan Reddy is keeping his options open. Jagan is banking on the legacy of his father, Y.S. Rajshekhar Reddy, who came back for a second term in the last elections before dying in a helicopter crash.
Even though the split of Andhra Pradesh blindsided him, Jagan was quick to reposition his politics to push for a united Andhra.
Analysts say that if his political influence continues like this, he could end up as many as 15-18 seats in the Seemandhra region, putting him in firmly as a power behind the throne.
In Bengal, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats, Mamata Banerjee is expected to improve her tally in 2014, following her spectacular sweep in the Assembly elections. The Trinamool Congress has partnered with the BJP earlier, but now with West Bengal to nurture that might not be a clear cut option any more for Mamata.
Despite her public and loud parting from the UPA last year, she will find it difficult to openly go with the BJP, specially with Modi as the PM candidate, given the large constitution of Muslims in the state.
She will also need massive monetary aid from the Centre to get her state out of bankruptcy, money that she has again asked for on Thursday.
But both national parties discount the idea of regional king makers.
"In 2004 and 2009, the idea of pre-poll alliances worked. I hope people have the wisdom to vote for an umbrella coalition like UPA," says the Congress' Randeep Surjewala.
Even the BJP is in rare agreement. "This election will be on misgovernance of the Congress and we will have a clear mandate," says BJP's vice-president M.A. Naqvi.

- Sakshipost, (Inputs from MailOnline)