FROM THE GROUND ZERO: Slight Edge For AAP In Punjab

By K. Ramachandra Murthy

Patiala: Aam Admi Party (AAP) has created a mild wave a week before the polling in Punjab. The popular wave is not seen but felt while talking to the common man in the street or farmers at the filed. Is the wave enough to trip the Congress apple cart?

People of Punjab are yearning for a change. That is quite obvious to anyone who travels in the State. We, the Sakshi team, went from Chandigarh to Jalandhar to Amritsar to Ludhiana to Patiala for four days by road to read the pulse of the people. That the people are asking for a change of government is for sure. Only one out of almost seventy persons we spoke to said he would certainly vote for Akali Dal. There were some who talked about development that took place during the ten-year tenure of Praksh Singh Badal. Even they insisted that it is time to try another party.

This makes it abundantly clear that the main contest is between the Congress and the AAP. After being appointed PCC president, Capt Amarinder Singh has brought all the factions in the Congress together and inculcated in the average Congressman a sense of unity. He was able to do this because the AICC Vice President Rahul Gandhi gave him a freehand. The Captain commands respect in all the three regions of Punjab - Doaba,Majha and Malwa. His popularity is visible in Amritsar which he represented in Lok Sabha. The Captain had defeated Arun Jaitley in Amritsar Lok Sabha constituency in 2014. It was earlier represented by cricket star Navjot Sidhu.

Amarinder Singh is contesting from his home constituency of Patiala which has been the seat of power wielded by his ancestors who were rulers of the princely state. He is called Maharaja even today. He has also filed his nomination from the chief minister's constituency of Lambi. His home seat is considered safe. He is being challenged by AAP candidate Jarnail Singh who is confident of beating the Captain. He told us that there is a wave in favour of AAP. Even in Patiala, the talk is about the contest between Capt Amarinder Singh and General JJ Singh put up by the AAP. The senior Badal has become so unpopular that his win in his own constituency is not taken for granted. He might manage to win ultimately. But it is going to be tougher than what it was in 2012.

Although AAM supremo Arvind Keriwal did not name the chief ministerial candidate of his party, the only AAP MP who is actively working for the party, Bhagwan Singh Mann is considered to be the prospective chief minister. He is contesting from Jalalabad in Malwa region. APP is not without its share of problems. Out of the four AAP MPs who were elected from Punjab in 2014, two were suspended for anti-party activities and one is unwell. Sucha Singh Chhotepur who was convener of AAP in Punjab had raised the banner of revolt against his prarty's national convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. He alleged that Kejriwal has been selling party tickets to undeserving candidates. Sucha Singh is known for his integrity and outspoken nature. The party leadership has made similar allegations against him and forced him out. Chhotepur then launched his own outfit called 'Apna Punjab Party'. In spite of these difficulties, the AAP is popular among the masses. Kejriwal did not name the party's chief ministerial candidate but was taunting the Congress for not doing so and openly suggesting that it would be Navjot Sidhu who would ultimately don the mantle. It was an attempt to create rift between the Captain and the Cricketer.

Sensing the damage potential of this strategy, Rahul Gandhi has announced Captain Amarinder Singh as the chief ministerial candidate. Addressing a public meeting at Majitha on Friday, the pocket-borough of Punjab Minister and senior leader of Siromani Akali Dal (SAD) Bikram Singh Majithia, Rahul Gandhi said the future chief minister is sitting on the dais with him.

The 74-year-old Captain is fighting is last election. He proved his mettle as chief minister for five years earlier and the chances of the Congress party winning the elections in Punjab depend largely on his personal popularity. Both the Congress and the AAP have been working very hard without leaving any stone unturned. If the wave in favour of the AAP is real, it should get a simple majority. If the wave is unreal, the organisational strength of the Congress and Amarinder Singh's leadership should get the party to the magic figure of 59 in the Assembly of 117 MLAs. In case the Akali-BJP combine gives a good fight, which is unlikely, then no party will be able to get a majority. The largest single party-either the Congress or the AAP-might form the government in partnership with the second party.

All the top guns were on display in Punjab on Friday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi started his campaign from Jalandhar lambasting the Congress for opportunistic politics. He accused the Congress of taking advantage of the dispute in the Yadav family in UP and settling as a junior partner of the Left Front in West Bengal. Modi said the Congress is the 'thing of the past' and exhorted the people not to vote for it. The BJP is a sub-junior partner in Punjab contesting only for 23 seats out of 117. The Akalis are fighting for 94 seats. The BJP has to contend with its super performance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Akali Dal machinery is well-oiled fighting against heavy odds. But the anti-incumbency factor is real and critical. Rahul Gandhi addressed rallies in Majitha and Talwandi Sabo. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal spoke at a meeting in Patiala, the home of Congress leader Amarinder Singh. We saw the young and enthusiasting crowds waiting for the arrival of their leaders at Rajesh Pilot statue breaking into bhangra several times saying that the whole of Punjab is celebrating the prospect of AAP coming to power.

While the Congress has an edge over the AAP in Majha and Daoba regions accounting for 25 and 23 seats, the AAP is strong in Malwa region comprising 69 seats. Out of 56 seats that the Akalis have in the outgoing Assembly, 34 are from Malwa region. Despite the Modi wave, the AAP could wrest four seats in Lok Sabha from this region. The performance of Arvind Kejriwal as Delhi chief minister will have a bearing on Punjab elections. Though some welfare measures are implemented in right earnest, the AAP government's running battle with the Centre shows it in poor light.

The secret of AAP's popularity in Delhi or Punjab or Gujarat is that it is led by a shrewed bania and the business community owns it. Earlier the community was solidly behind the BJP. The Jatt Sikhs, who are a dominant farming community and traditional supporters of Akali Dal, are angry with the ruling party for neglecting agriculture. This community is largely present in Malwa and Majha regions. The Jatt-Sikhs are yet to excuse the Congress for the 1984 riots in which at least 3000 Sikhs were messacred by marauding mobs allegedly at the behest of the Congress leaders. HS Phoolka, the present convenor of AAP in Punjab, has a history of a crusader seeking justice for the 1984 riot victims. He has a massive support base among the NRIs. Many of the NRIs have been camping in Punjab for a couple of months working as self-propelled engines for the success of the AAP candidates. Their's is the labour of love. The Jatt Sikhs category and the youth upset with unemployment and institutional corruption besides unbridled drug mafia is likely to prefer the AAP. People are keen to see that only a Punjabi becomes AAP chief minister and not Kejriwal who himself announced that it would be only a Punjabi. To be more precise, only a Sikh can become a CM in Punjab.

The Dalits in Punjab are likely to behave the way the Muslims in Uttar Pradesh do at the time of polling. They might vote for a Congress or an AAP candidate who has greater chances of defeating the Akali/ BJP candidate. Their preference may vary from constituency to constituency. The Dalits constitute a whopping 32 percent of the population, the largest for any State in the country. There are as many as 34 SC reserved constituencies. Mayawati, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo, could not extend her influence to Punjab despite many efforts. There is no Dalit politics or agenda per se in this State. It may help the AAP since the popular perception is in favour of giving an opportunity to a new party since both the Akali Dal and the Congress have been tested and found to be inadequate.