2019 Elections Will Be A Game-changer For Delhi, AP

K. Ramachandra Murthy

The year that has lapsed into oblivion was a mix of good, bad and indifferent. The country did very well in sports. The Indian Cricket team stands on the cusp of winning a series in Australia for the first time in decades. In badminton and boxing, we are clearly making our mark. It was not bad in business although a couple of serious mistakes could have been avoided. The judiciary gave us the odd jolt, but managed to gain balance and poise as the year came to an end. There were truly ugly incidents in which mindless violence was perpetrated by those who claim to protect the cow, calling themselves gorakshaks. Lynching by unruly mobs became the order of the day and killing police officers by pelting stones was carried on with impunity.

Political leaders continued to behave the way they have been doing for some years. They were selfish, narrow minded, communal and anti-people with a sane voice coming across rarely. Nothing to celebrate in education and health from which the governments have been withdrawing, leaving the fate of the poor and underprivileged youngsters in the hands of shabbily run government schools while allowing the private and corporate schools to exploit the middle-class, upper middle-class and the rich. The standards of education in private schools are not being monitored by government officials. There is no mechanism to fix the fees. The same is the case with private hospitals where there is no standard rate card enforced by the governments. Most of the developments in education and health take place without the involvement of the government. It is in the political arena, one saw havoc being played by mischievous, manipulative and selfish politicians. The Constitution is not respected. Even decisions that have to be taken by governments or legislature were left to the courts. The anti-defection law has been flouted at will with no constitutional authority questioning the habitual offenders.

Modi loser, Rahul no gainer

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lost two allies in Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in AP and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP in Bihar. The BJP had to concede the Lok Sabha seats it won in 2014 in Bihar to ally with JD(U) to contest in 2019, in order to keep the belligerent Nitish Kumar in the alliance. Ram Vilas Paswan, the cleverest politician in the country, has got six LS seats for contesting in the forthcoming elections and one Rajya Sabha seat in the hard bargain he drove with BJP president Amit Shah. The Modi-Shah duo is struggling to retain its edge in UP and Bihar while regaining the confidence of the people of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh which it lost recently to the Congress. Consolidation of the Hindu vote has always been the trick the BJP depended upon since Advani’s Rath-Yatra days.

It is not out of love for Muslim women or respect for their rights that the BJP has been making a lot of noise about passing the Triple Talaq Bill. The argument that this was a ploy to divide the Muslim votes through winning the female voters by championing their cause is unfounded. It is unlikely that Muslim women would defy their men and vote for the saffron party despite the lynching by Gorakshaks and the feeling that minorities are treated as second-rate citizens. The idea is that the Hindu zealots would be happy if the Muslim women are empowered as against men. The Hindus think that only a party like the BJP can deal with the Muslims in a stern manner by bringing about a Bill like this. This notion will help consolidate the Hindu votes.

The BJP leaders are aware that it is not possible to win over the minorities or Dalits at this point in time. The winning mantra would be consolidating the Hindus by impressing them through strong, but sensible policy from the viewpoint of human rights, measures against the Muslim community and revival of the movement to build Ram Mandir at Ayodhya. The Congress party would further get alienated from the Hindu community by stalling the passage of Triple Talaq Bill in Rajya Sabha. The subtle argument put forward by the Congress leaders that it is better to refer to a select committee would not convince the Hindus.

Two Telugu Titans Fight It Out

The Enforcement Directorate informed the highest court in the land that the alleged middleman in VVIP chopper, Augusta Westland, deal, Christian Michel, named Sonia Gandhi and a son of an Italian lady (meaning Rahul) as beneficiaries of the kickbacks. AK Antony, a senior Congress leader known for his integrity and defence minister in 2008, had made it clear that the Gandhis never interfered in the deal while Amit Shah and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis asked Rahul Gandhi to tender an apology to the nation. Rahul flatly refused and continued to say that Modi has been a chowkidar who indulged in theft (Chowkidar Chor Hai) by putting Rs 30,000 crore in the pocket of Anil Ambani, a known defaulter who never produced anything connected to a fighter aircraft in his life, in the Rafale deal. Augusta and Rafale will surely be the main weapons in the battle of ballot in April-May slug-fest which is hardly four months away. Allegations and counter-allegations have marred the debate in the parliament once again. If political parties don’t reconsider their strategies in parliament and make a healthy debate possible, the meaning of parliamentary democracy would be lost. We will be reduced to a system of democracy where only elections matter. One has to spend and win elections and then earn more than what was spent making it a vicious circle. All eyes are on Modi and Shah who are expected to use all tricks in their bag to stall the Congress and retain power for another term. While the popularity graph of Modi is falling steeply, the profile of his rival Rahul Gandhi has not been on the ascendant either.

This state of no-winner and no-loser has been manifest in the results of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The Congress could not win a simple majority against the BJP which has been in power continuously for fifteen years suggesting that while the BJP is losing, the Congress is not gaining. This paradox has given scope to regional satraps like K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) to fancy a role for themselves in national politics and entertain unlimited dreams of sitting in the loftiest chair by mobilising other non-Congress, non-BJP parties and drawing them into the so-called Federal Front. Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief and chief minister of AP, is not one to lag behind. He also declared his intentions that he would cobble up a front that includes the Congress party. The two Telugu titans are flexing their muscles to fight it out in Delhi to have a final say in the formation of the national government after the general elections in 2019. Which Telugu leader has the guts and wits to make a mark on the national scene is the question engaging the attention of the nation, not just the two Telugu States. That way, 2019 is the most crucial year for Modi and Rahul with KCR and Chandrababu Naidu playing their own games in the lobbies.

Also Read: AP Politics In 2018: TDP Ditches BJP For Congress