If Narendra Modi ever entertained even a little apprehension, about the future state of affairs in Gujarat, when he handed over the responsibilities of the chief ministership to Anandibai Patel before striding in victoriously into New Delhi after the 2014 general elections, it has certainly come back to haunt him now.

With the recent Dalit unrest rapidly deteriorating, even before the dust of the Patel agitation settles down, the Gujarat politics could be a thorn in the flesh for someone who masterfully orchestrated the political stage there for not one or two but four terms, spanning over almost fourteen years.

The rising Dalit unrest

Reports about atrocities against Dalits indicate a generally rise on a national scale since the formation of the BJP government in the Centre and Gujarat in particular seems to have a higher rate of violence against them. The reasons sighted are not just discrimination but also land disputes.

The recent Dalit unrest in Una for example, has overtones of both. Reports even sight the police playing ball with the ‘cow protection group’ by handing over members of the Dalit family to the group for allegedly skinning a cow on July 11, who then proceeded to publicly flog them for three hours. This triggered public outrage and protests that have put Gujarat on the boil.

How could growing unrests affect future politics in Gujarat?

With Dalit agitations spreading across the state and BJP’s political opponents capitalizing quickly on the state of affairs, things could certainly get unpleasant for BJP in Gujarat that will be going in for the Assembly elections in 2017.

Dalits hold only 7 percent of the vote bank, but club that with the 9 percent Muslim and 15 percent Patel communities, and you have more ammunition in the hands of a hungry opposition that has been kept out of the treasury benches for a very long time.

Another factor in the equation is that about 35 seats in the 2012 election were decided by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.

Finally the absence of Narendra Modi in Gujarat and the party’s inability to find a more suitable leader to fill his shoes could tilt the balance towards the opposition and away from the BJP.