BJP And The Telugu States In 2019

Y.Satyanarayana

Come 2019, and the BJP has a mountain to climb in the Southern states. Let us begin with the two Telugu-speaking states first. From the way things look, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi led by Chief Minister, K. Chandrashekhar Rao, is streets ahead. He is ably supported by his son, IT Minister, KTR, daughter and Nizamabad MP, Kavitha and nephew and Irrigation Minister, T.Harish Rao, among others. It would not be an exaggeration to term the Telangana electoral equation as a one-horse race.

The Congress could be a game second, if it puts up a fight and is not riven by internecine rivalries. The problem with the Congress in Telangana, is not unique to the state. In most states, the party has far too many chief ministerial aspirants. Jana Reddy, Uttam Kumar Reddy, Shabbir Ali, Komatireddi Venkat Reddy and others, are leaders in their own right. Revanth Reddy is new to the party after having migrated from the Telugu Desam, which can be written off as political entity in Telangana. Mothkulu Narsimhulu, in fact, suggested the merger of the party with the TRS! This is the pathetic state in which the TDP finds itself in Telangana.

The BJP has some presence in a few pockets, but that is hardly sufficient to see the party home. It might just about be able to increase its tally ever so slightly at best, which is also true of the AIMIM. The problem with the BJP in Telangana is the dearth of charismatic leaders.

Andhra Pradesh poses a tougher challenge for the BJP, as things stand. If it had been in an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu, things would have been even worse—so powerful is the anti-incumbency sentiment against Naidu at the moment. In fact, if there's one clear loser either which way, it is Chandrababu. As for the BJP, it has no political presence worth the name in AP. The only party which has been surging ahead, in terms of popularity at the grassroots level, is the YSRCP. For one thing, in the Leader of Opposition, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the masses see a reflection of his father, the late Dr. YS Rajasekhara Reddy, a colossus who strode the stage of AP and national politics. The people of the state look up to YS Jagan as a man of commitment, true to his word. The YSRCP chief also enjoys credibility with the masses because he is the only leader who has been campaigning relentlessly for Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh. During the course of his mass initiative, Praja Sankalpa Yatra, YS Jagan spoke eloquently and elaborately about the benefits of SCS to the state, in every rally and public or informal interaction thus far.

So, where does this leave the BJP? It is seen by the people of Andhra Pradesh as the party which went back on its promise on SCS to the state, as promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party's association with Chandrababu's TDP, which has become synonymous with corruption and Naidu's chameleon-like brand of politics, has not helped the BJP's cause in any way. It does not stand a shadow of a chance in the state in terms of numbers for this very reason.

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The current scenario in Tamil Nadu presents the picture of a political pot pourri. With OPS and EPS treading cautiously, Dinakaran making his own moves, Kamal Haasan making his political debut, Stalin waiting in the wings and most importantly, Rajinikanth ready to plunge headlong into politics, the BJP will have to strike a backroom deal with one of the winning combinations, but this is easier said than done. The political snake charmer in Amit Shah will be on test here.

The only state in the South where the BJP has some strength is Karnataka, but again Siddaramaiah is no push-over. He is on stronger footing than the BJP would like to admit, while its own Karnataka unit is far from an orderly family. Yedyurappa, Ananth Kumar and others have hardly helped the cause of the party's unity in the state, despite the tremendous goodwill it enjoys in large swathes across Karnataka. With elections around the corner, we will know which way the pendulum is likely to swing. A question mark now hangs over the BJP in a state which had once come close to becoming its bastion.

Kerala has never been a BJP state, except for small pockets of influence. Therefore, the CPM and Congress continue to slug it out in God's own country.

On the whole, the BJP faces a Himalayan challenge south of the Vindhyas and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have not made it any easier. In both the Telugu states, the current ruling party at the Centre, is hardly a political force to reckon with. It is something else that the party finds it difficult to swallow this bitter pill, but then 2019 will prove to be the toughest challenge Modi has faced in recent years.